ဘဏ္ဍာရေးမူဝါဒမှာ နောက်ထပ် ချို့ယွင်းချက်တစ်ခုကတော့ crowding-out လို့ခေါ်တဲ့ effect ဘဲ ဖြစ်ပါ တယ်။ ဒီတစ်ခါလဲ crowding-out effect ကို မြန်မာလိုဘာသာပြန်ရတာ ခက်လို့ ဒီအတိုင်းဘဲ ရေးလိုက်ပါတယ်။ ဆိုလိုတာကတော့ ကောင်းကျိုးတစ်ခုရအောင်လုပ်ပေမဲ့ ဆိုးကျိုးတစ်ခုက အဲဒီ အကျိုးကိုခြေဖျက် ဖယ်ထုတ်ပစ်လိုက်တဲ့ အကျိုးသက်ရောက်မှုမျိုးပါ။ စီးပွားရေးကို တိုးချဲ့ပေးတဲ့ ဘဏ္ဍာရေးမူဝါဒ expansionary fiscal policy ဟာ စီးပွားရေးလုပ်ငန်းတွေ တိုးတက်လာအောင် အသုံးစရိတ်ကို များများသုံးတယ် သို့သော်လိုငွေကို ဖြစ်စေတယ်။ အတိုးနှုန်းကို တက်စေတယ်။ အတိုးနှုန်းတွေ တက်တော့ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုကို ကျဆင်းစေတယ်။ အဲလိုနည်းနဲ့ expansionary policy ရဲ့ ကောင်းကျိုးကို ပျက်စေ၊ အားပျော့စေပါတယ်။ မြင့်မားတဲ့အတိုးနှုန်းဟာ အတိုးနှုန်းအတက်အကျဒဏ်ကို မခံနိုင်တဲ့ စားသုံးမှုပုံစံအသုံး စရိတ်ကို ဖယ်ထုတ်ပစ်လိုက်ပါတယ်။ ဥပမာ မော်တော်ကားကို အကြွေးနဲ့ ဝယ်တာမျိုး။ အတိုးကပေးနေရတာကိုး။ သို့သော်လည်း GDP မှာ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုဟာ အတက်အကျ အများဆုံး အစိတ်အပိုင်း ဖြစ်တဲ့အတွက် ဒီ crowding-out effect ကို စားသုံးမှုပေါ် အာရုံမပြုဘဲ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှု ပေါ်ကိုဘဲ အဓိက ဦးတည် အာရုံပြု ထားလိုက်ပါမယ်။ expansionary fiscal policy က ဘတ်ဂျက်လိုငွေ ဖြစ်ပေါ်စေပြီး စီးပွားရေးကို တိုးချဲ့အောင်လုပ်တယ်။ ဒါပေမဲ့ အတိုးနှုန်းတွေမြင့်တက်ပြီး ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုမှာ လျော့ကျတာနဲ့ ခြေဖျက်လိုက်ခြင်းကြောင့် စီးပွားရေးတိုးတက်မှုကို တစ်စိတ်တစ်ပိုင်း သို့မဟုတ် အပြည့်အဝ တားဆီးသလား ဆိုတာကို ကြည့်ကြည့်မယ်။
အစိုးရက တိုးချဲ့စီးပွားရေးမူဝါဒကို ဆောင်ရွက်တဲ့အခါ အသုံးစရိတ်ကို ပိုပြီး သုံးစွဲတယ်။ ဘတ်ဂျက်မှာ လိုငွေ ဖြစ်လာတယ်။ ဘတ်ဂျက်လိုငွေကို ပြန်ဖြည့်ဖို့ အစိုးရက ပြည်သူတွေဆီက ငွေပြန်ချေးတယ်။ အဲဒီ အခါမှာ ငွေကြေးရဲ့ စုစုပေါင်းဝယ်လိုအားက တက်လာပါတယ်။ ငွေကြေးအာဏာပိုင်များ (ဗဟိုဘဏ်) က ငွေကြေးပမာဏ money supply ကို ပုံသေပမာဏမှာ ထိန်းထားတဲ့အတွက် ဒီလို ငွေကြေး ဝယ်လိုအား တွေ တက်လာတာဟာ ငွေကြေးကို ချေးဌားလို့ ပေးရတဲ့ စျေးနှုန်း - အတိုးနှုန်းကို တက်လာစေပါတယ်။ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုကလဲ အတိုးနှုန်းနဲ့ ပြောင်းပြန်အချိုးကျလေတော့ အတိုးနှုန်းတက်ရင် ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုက ကျဆင်းပြီး ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုကို ဖယ်ထုတ်လိုက်တာပေါ့နော်။
အရေးကြီးတာတစ်ခု မှတ်ထားရမှာက တိုင်းပြည်ဟာ စီးပွားရေးကျဆင်းမှု recession ဖြစ်နေတဲ့အခါမှာ ဒီ crowding-out effect ဟာ ပြဿနာ ဖြစ်နိုင်ခြေ နည်းတယ်ဆိုတာပါဘဲ။
အစိုးရက တိုးချဲ့စီးပွားရေးမူဝါဒကို ဆောင်ရွက်တဲ့အခါ အသုံးစရိတ်ကို ပိုပြီး သုံးစွဲတယ်။ ဘတ်ဂျက်မှာ လိုငွေ ဖြစ်လာတယ်။ ဘတ်ဂျက်လိုငွေကို ပြန်ဖြည့်ဖို့ အစိုးရက ပြည်သူတွေဆီက ငွေပြန်ချေးတယ်။ အဲဒီ အခါမှာ ငွေကြေးရဲ့ စုစုပေါင်းဝယ်လိုအားက တက်လာပါတယ်။ ငွေကြေးအာဏာပိုင်များ (ဗဟိုဘဏ်) က ငွေကြေးပမာဏ money supply ကို ပုံသေပမာဏမှာ ထိန်းထားတဲ့အတွက် ဒီလို ငွေကြေး ဝယ်လိုအား တွေ တက်လာတာဟာ ငွေကြေးကို ချေးဌားလို့ ပေးရတဲ့ စျေးနှုန်း - အတိုးနှုန်းကို တက်လာစေပါတယ်။ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုကလဲ အတိုးနှုန်းနဲ့ ပြောင်းပြန်အချိုးကျလေတော့ အတိုးနှုန်းတက်ရင် ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုက ကျဆင်းပြီး ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုကို ဖယ်ထုတ်လိုက်တာပေါ့နော်။
Recession ကာလ
အရေးကြီးတာတစ်ခု မှတ်ထားရမှာက တိုင်းပြည်ဟာ စီးပွားရေးကျဆင်းမှု recession ဖြစ်နေတဲ့အခါမှာ ဒီ crowding-out effect ဟာ ပြဿနာ ဖြစ်နိုင်ခြေ နည်းတယ်ဆိုတာပါဘဲ။
ဘာလို့လဲ ဆိုတော့ စီးပွားရေးကျ နေတဲ့ recession ကာလအတွင်းမှာ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုကလဲ ကျဆင်းနေလို့ပါ။ recession အတွင်းမှာ အရောင်းအဝယ်တွေလဲ ကျဆင်းမယ်။ စီးပွားရေးလုပ်ငန်းတွေ အနေနဲ့လဲ စက်ပစ္စည်း အသစ်တွေ၊ စက်ရုံအသစ်တွေ ထပ်ဖြည့်ဖို့၊ ထပ်ဆောက်ဖို့ ဆန္ဒမရှိပါဘူး။ သူတို့မှာ ရှိနှင့်ပြီးသား ထုတ်လုပ်နိုင်စွမ်းအား တွေတောင် နားထားရတဲ့အခါမှာ နောက်ထပ် capacity တွေ ထပ် ရင်းနှီးဖို့ဆိုတာ အဓိပ္ပါယ် မရှိပါဘူး။ ဒီတော့ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှု ဝယ်လိုအား ကျဆင်းတာနဲ့အတူ သူ့ကို ဖယ်ထုတ်ပစ်ဖို့ crowding-out effect ကလဲ ဖြစ်နိုင်ခြေ သိပ်သေးငယ်ပါတယ်။ ငွေကြေးဝယ်လိုအားတက်လာလို့ အတိုးနှုန်းတွေ တက်တာတောင်မှ အစိုးရက ဘဏ္ဍာရေးမူဝါဒကို တိုးချဲ့တဲ့အတွက် လုပ်ငန်းတွေက မျှော်လင့်တဲ့ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှု အလားအလာတွေက အားကောင်းနေပါတယ်။ ဒီတော့ အတိုးနှုန်းတက်လို့ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှု ကျဆင်းတာမျိုး မဖြစ်တော့ပါဘူး။
တိုင်းပြည်ဟာ စီးပွားရေးတွေ ပွင့်လန်းနေတဲ့အခါ စက်ရုံအလုပ်ရုံတွေကလဲ capacity အပြည့်နဲ့ လည်ပတ်ကြတယ်။ လုပ်ငန်းတွေရဲ့ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုတွေကလဲ မြင့်မားနေကြတယ်။ အဲလိုဖြစ်ရတဲ့ အကြောင်း ရင်း ၂ ရပ်ကတော့ -
(၁) capacity အပြည့်နဲ့ လည်ပတ်နေတော့ စက်ကိရိယာတွေက မြန်မြန် ဟောင်းနွမ်းစုတ်ပြတ် ပျက်စီးလာတယ်။ အဲဒါတွေကို အစားထိုးဖို့ စက်ကိရိယာ အသစ်တွေကို ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံရတယ်။
(၂) အဲလို ထုတ်လုပ်မှုစွမ်းအားကို ဆက်လက်ထိန်းသိမ်းထားဖို့ စက်ကိရိယာအသစ်တွေကို အစားထိုးတာ တင်မက တိုင်းပြည်က ခြုံငုံကြည့်လိုက်ရင် တိုးတက်မှု အလားအလာတွေက ဖြစ်နေတော့ ထုတ်လုပ်မှု စွမ်းအားကို ထပ်ပြီး တိုးအောင် ထပ်ဖြည့်ဆည်း၊ ရင်းနှီးကြတယ်။
ဆန့်ကျင်ဘက်အားဖြင့် တိုင်းပြည်က capacity အပြည့် သို့မဟုတ် အပြည့်လောက်နီးနီးနဲ့ လည်ပတ်နေတဲ့ အခါ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုတွေကလဲ တော်တော်ကို မြင့်မားနေတော့ crowding-out ပြဿနာဟာ တော်တော်ကို ကြီးမားနိုင်ခြေ ဖြစ်လာပါတယ်။
ပိုပြီး ကြီးမားလေးနက်တဲ့ ပြဿနာကတော့ သိပ်ကြီးမားတဲ့ အစိုးရကြွေးမြီကို အဆက်မပြတ် ဖြည့်ဆည်းနေ ရတာပါဘဲ။ ဒီပြဿနာဟာ အနာဂတ်မျိုးဆက်သစ်များကို အရင်းအနှီးကုန်စည်နည်းနည်းဘဲ လက်ဆင့်ကမ်း ပေးနိုင်ပြီး ကြီးမားတဲ့ စီးပွားရေး ဝန်ထုပ်ဝန်ပိုးကြီးကို လွှဲပြောင်းလိုက်ပါတယ်။ ဘတ်ဂျက် လိုငွေကြောင့် အစိုးရက ငွေချေးရတယ်။ အစိုးရကြွေးမြီကြောင့် အတိုးနှုန်းတွေတက်ပြီး ပုဂ္ဂလိက ရင်းနှီး မြှုပ်နှံမှုကို ကျဆင်းစေပါတယ်။ အစိုးရက ချေးဌားတဲ့ public borrowing က recession အတွင်းမှာ ဆိုရင်တော့ crowding-out ပြဿနာက သိပ်မဖြစ်နိုင်ဘူး။ သို့သော်လဲဘဲ recession မဟုတ်တဲ့ကာလ၊ တိုင်းပြည်က လုပ်သားအင်အား အပြည့်အဝနဲ့ လည်ပတ်နေတဲ့ကာလ၊ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုတွေ သိပ်မြင့်တက် နေတဲ့ ကာလမှာ public borrowing ကြောင့်ဖြစ်လာတဲ့ ကြွေးမြီကို အဆက်မပြတ် finance လုပ်ရပြီဆို ရင် အဲဒီ public debt ဟာ crowding-out ပြဿနာကို ဖြစ်စေတယ်။
အဲလို အခြေအနေမျိုးမှာ အစိုးရကြွေးမြီကို ပြန်လည် ဖြည့်ဆည်းဖို့အတွက် ငွေတွေချေးရလို့ တက်လာတဲ့ အတိုးနှုန်းဟာ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုကို အကြီးအကျယ် ကျဆင်းစေတော့တာပါဘဲ။ ဖယ်ထုတ်ပစ်လိုက်တဲ့ ရင်းနှီး မြှုပ်နှံမှု ပမာဏက သိပ်ကြီးနေရင် အနာဂတ်မျိုးဆက်များသည် နိမ့်ကျတဲ့ ထုတ်လုပ်မှု စွမ်းအား၊ နိမ့်ကျတဲ့ လူနေမှု အဆင့်အတန်းနဲ့ တိုင်းပြည်ကို အမွေဆက်ခံရတော့မှာဘဲ ဖြစ်ပါတယ်။
Crowding-Out effect ကို graph နဲ့ ကြည့်လိုက်ရအောင်။
အမှန်အတိုးနှုန်းက ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုနဲ့ ပြောင်းပြန်အချိုးကျတယ်။ ပုံဆွဲလိုက်တဲ့အခါ အဲဒီ ၂ ခုရဲ့ ဆက်စပ်မှု က လျှောစောက်အောက်ကို ဆင်းတဲ့ ပုံစံပေါ့။ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှု မျဉ်းကွေးက downward-sloping ပုံစံပေါ့။ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှု မျဉ်းကွေးကို ID1 သို့မဟုတ် ID2 နဲ့ ပုံမှာ ပြထားတယ်။ အခုပထမ ID1 ကို စဉ်းစားမယ်။ ID2 ကို လောလောဆယ်မှာ လစ်လျူရှုထားမယ်။
ဥပမာ အစိုးရက ပြည်သူတွေဆီက ငွေချေးလို့ အမှန်အတိုးနှုန်းဟာ 6% ကနေ 10% ကို တက်တယ် ဆိုပါစို့။ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုဟာ $25 ဘီလီယံကနေ $15 ဘီလီယံ ကို ကျဆင်းသွားတယ်။ ပုံမှာ a ကနေ b ကို ရွေ့သွားတယ်။ ဆိုလိုတာက public debt ကို ပြန်ဖြည့်ရတဲ့အတွက် ပုဂ္ဂလိကရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုကို $10 ဘီလီယံ ဖယ်ထုတ်ပစ်လိုက်တယ်။ အနာဂတ်မျိုးဆက်ကို လွှဲပေးမဲ့ အရင်းအနှီး ကုန်စည်ပမာဏက public debt ကိုသာ finance မလုပ်ရရင် ရှိမှာထက် $10 ဘီလီယံ လျော့သွားပါတယ်။
Boom ကာလ
တိုင်းပြည်ဟာ စီးပွားရေးတွေ ပွင့်လန်းနေတဲ့အခါ စက်ရုံအလုပ်ရုံတွေကလဲ capacity အပြည့်နဲ့ လည်ပတ်ကြတယ်။ လုပ်ငန်းတွေရဲ့ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုတွေကလဲ မြင့်မားနေကြတယ်။ အဲလိုဖြစ်ရတဲ့ အကြောင်း ရင်း ၂ ရပ်ကတော့ -
(၁) capacity အပြည့်နဲ့ လည်ပတ်နေတော့ စက်ကိရိယာတွေက မြန်မြန် ဟောင်းနွမ်းစုတ်ပြတ် ပျက်စီးလာတယ်။ အဲဒါတွေကို အစားထိုးဖို့ စက်ကိရိယာ အသစ်တွေကို ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံရတယ်။
(၂) အဲလို ထုတ်လုပ်မှုစွမ်းအားကို ဆက်လက်ထိန်းသိမ်းထားဖို့ စက်ကိရိယာအသစ်တွေကို အစားထိုးတာ တင်မက တိုင်းပြည်က ခြုံငုံကြည့်လိုက်ရင် တိုးတက်မှု အလားအလာတွေက ဖြစ်နေတော့ ထုတ်လုပ်မှု စွမ်းအားကို ထပ်ပြီး တိုးအောင် ထပ်ဖြည့်ဆည်း၊ ရင်းနှီးကြတယ်။
ဆန့်ကျင်ဘက်အားဖြင့် တိုင်းပြည်က capacity အပြည့် သို့မဟုတ် အပြည့်လောက်နီးနီးနဲ့ လည်ပတ်နေတဲ့ အခါ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုတွေကလဲ တော်တော်ကို မြင့်မားနေတော့ crowding-out ပြဿနာဟာ တော်တော်ကို ကြီးမားနိုင်ခြေ ဖြစ်လာပါတယ်။
အစိုးရကြွေးမြီပြဿနာ
ပိုပြီး ကြီးမားလေးနက်တဲ့ ပြဿနာကတော့ သိပ်ကြီးမားတဲ့ အစိုးရကြွေးမြီကို အဆက်မပြတ် ဖြည့်ဆည်းနေ ရတာပါဘဲ။ ဒီပြဿနာဟာ အနာဂတ်မျိုးဆက်သစ်များကို အရင်းအနှီးကုန်စည်နည်းနည်းဘဲ လက်ဆင့်ကမ်း ပေးနိုင်ပြီး ကြီးမားတဲ့ စီးပွားရေး ဝန်ထုပ်ဝန်ပိုးကြီးကို လွှဲပြောင်းလိုက်ပါတယ်။ ဘတ်ဂျက် လိုငွေကြောင့် အစိုးရက ငွေချေးရတယ်။ အစိုးရကြွေးမြီကြောင့် အတိုးနှုန်းတွေတက်ပြီး ပုဂ္ဂလိက ရင်းနှီး မြှုပ်နှံမှုကို ကျဆင်းစေပါတယ်။ အစိုးရက ချေးဌားတဲ့ public borrowing က recession အတွင်းမှာ ဆိုရင်တော့ crowding-out ပြဿနာက သိပ်မဖြစ်နိုင်ဘူး။ သို့သော်လဲဘဲ recession မဟုတ်တဲ့ကာလ၊ တိုင်းပြည်က လုပ်သားအင်အား အပြည့်အဝနဲ့ လည်ပတ်နေတဲ့ကာလ၊ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုတွေ သိပ်မြင့်တက် နေတဲ့ ကာလမှာ public borrowing ကြောင့်ဖြစ်လာတဲ့ ကြွေးမြီကို အဆက်မပြတ် finance လုပ်ရပြီဆို ရင် အဲဒီ public debt ဟာ crowding-out ပြဿနာကို ဖြစ်စေတယ်။
အဲလို အခြေအနေမျိုးမှာ အစိုးရကြွေးမြီကို ပြန်လည် ဖြည့်ဆည်းဖို့အတွက် ငွေတွေချေးရလို့ တက်လာတဲ့ အတိုးနှုန်းဟာ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုကို အကြီးအကျယ် ကျဆင်းစေတော့တာပါဘဲ။ ဖယ်ထုတ်ပစ်လိုက်တဲ့ ရင်းနှီး မြှုပ်နှံမှု ပမာဏက သိပ်ကြီးနေရင် အနာဂတ်မျိုးဆက်များသည် နိမ့်ကျတဲ့ ထုတ်လုပ်မှု စွမ်းအား၊ နိမ့်ကျတဲ့ လူနေမှု အဆင့်အတန်းနဲ့ တိုင်းပြည်ကို အမွေဆက်ခံရတော့မှာဘဲ ဖြစ်ပါတယ်။
Crowding-Out effect ကို graph နဲ့ ကြည့်လိုက်ရအောင်။
အမှန်အတိုးနှုန်းက ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုနဲ့ ပြောင်းပြန်အချိုးကျတယ်။ ပုံဆွဲလိုက်တဲ့အခါ အဲဒီ ၂ ခုရဲ့ ဆက်စပ်မှု က လျှောစောက်အောက်ကို ဆင်းတဲ့ ပုံစံပေါ့။ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှု မျဉ်းကွေးက downward-sloping ပုံစံပေါ့။ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှု မျဉ်းကွေးကို ID1 သို့မဟုတ် ID2 နဲ့ ပုံမှာ ပြထားတယ်။ အခုပထမ ID1 ကို စဉ်းစားမယ်။ ID2 ကို လောလောဆယ်မှာ လစ်လျူရှုထားမယ်။
ဥပမာ အစိုးရက ပြည်သူတွေဆီက ငွေချေးလို့ အမှန်အတိုးနှုန်းဟာ 6% ကနေ 10% ကို တက်တယ် ဆိုပါစို့။ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုဟာ $25 ဘီလီယံကနေ $15 ဘီလီယံ ကို ကျဆင်းသွားတယ်။ ပုံမှာ a ကနေ b ကို ရွေ့သွားတယ်။ ဆိုလိုတာက public debt ကို ပြန်ဖြည့်ရတဲ့အတွက် ပုဂ္ဂလိကရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုကို $10 ဘီလီယံ ဖယ်ထုတ်ပစ်လိုက်တယ်။ အနာဂတ်မျိုးဆက်ကို လွှဲပေးမဲ့ အရင်းအနှီး ကုန်စည်ပမာဏက public debt ကိုသာ finance မလုပ်ရရင် ရှိမှာထက် $10 ဘီလီယံ လျော့သွားပါတယ်။
အစိုးရရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုနဲ့ အစိုးရ-ပုဂ္ဂလိက တွဲဖက်ဖြည့်ဆည်းပေးမှု
Crowding-Out effect ဖြစ်ရင်တောင်မှ အနာဂတ်မျိုးဆက်သစ်များသို့ လွှဲပေးလိုက်တဲ့ စီးပွားရေး ဝန်ထုပ် ဝန်ပိုးကို အကြောင်းအချက် ၂ ရပ်က တစ်စိတ်တစ်ပိုင်း သို့မဟုတ် အပြည့်အဝ ခြေဖျက်ပေးပြန်ပါတယ်။ ပထမ အကြောင်းရင်းက ပုဂ္ဂလိက အသုံးစရိတ်မှာ စားသုံးမှုဖြစ်စေ၊ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှု ဖြစ်စေ၊ ပါဝင်နေတာ ကြောင့် ပြည်သူပိုင်ကုန်စည်များလိုဘဲ ဖြစ်ပါတယ်။ public debt နဲ့ ပြုလုပ်ထားတဲ့ အစိုးရအသုံးစရိတ်များ တစ်စိတ်တစ်ပိုင်းဟာ အစိုးရ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုအတွက်၊ ပြည်သူတွေအတွက် ဖြစ်တယ် (လမ်းမကြီးများ၊ မြေအောက်ရထား၊ လျှပ်စစ်မီး စသည်)၊ လူသားအရင်းအနှီးအတွက် ဖြစ်တယ် (ပညာရေး၊ ကျန်းမာရေး၊ လုပ်ငန်းခွင် သင်တန်း စသည်)။ ပုဂ္ဂလိက က စက်နဲ့ စက်ပစ္စည်းတွေအပေါ်မှာ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံ သုံးစွဲ သကဲ့သို့ဘဲ အစိုးရရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုတွေကလဲ တိုင်းပြည်ရဲ့ အနာဂတ် ထုတ်လုပ်မှု စွမ်းအားကို မြှင့်တင် ပေးပါတယ်။ အနာဂတ်မျိုးဆက်များကို လက်ဆင့်ကမ်းပေးတဲ့ ပြည်သူပိုင် အရင်းအနှီး ကုန်စည် ကတော့ မြင့်မားပါတယ်။ ဒီကြီးမားတဲ့ ပြည်သူပိုင် အရင်းအနှီးသည် ခုနက crowding-out effect ကြောင့် ပျောက်ဆုံးသွားတဲ့ ပုဂ္ဂလိက အရင်းအနှီး ကုန်စည်ကို ခြေဖျက်လိုက်တယ်။ ဒီတော့ ယေဘုယျစုစုပေါင်း ထုတ်လုပ်မှု စွမ်းရည်က ဘာမှ မပြောင်းလဲ၊ မပျက်စီးဘဲ ရှိသွားပါတယ်။
ဒုတိယအချက်ကတော့ အစိုးရနဲ့ ပုဂ္ဂလိက တစ်ဦးနဲ့တစ်ဦး တွဲဖက် ဖြည့်ဆည်းပေးမှုပါဘဲ။ တစ်ဦးလိုတာ တစ်ဦးက ဖြည့်တာပေါ့။ ဒါဟာ crowding-out effect ကို လျော့ပါးစေပါတယ်။ တစ်ချို့သော အစိုးရနဲ့ ပုဂ္ဂလိက ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုတွေဟာ တွဲဖက်လျှက်ရှိနေပါတယ်။ ဒါကြောင့် အစိုးရက ငွေချေးဌားပြီး ဖြည့်ဆည်း လုပ်ကိုင်တဲ့ ပြည်သူပိုင် ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုတွေဟာ မြင့်မားတဲ့ မျှော်မှန်း ပြန်ရချက်ကြောင့် တစ်ချို့သော ပုဂ္ဂလိက ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုတွေကို တိုးတက်မြန်ဆန်စေပါတယ်။ ဥပမာအားဖြင့် ဖက်ဒရယ် အစိုးရက မြို့သစ်တစ်ခုကို တည်ဆောက်တာဟာ အနီးအနားမှာ ရုံးအဆောက်အဦတွေ၊ ဆိုင်တွေ၊ စားသောက်ဆိုင်တွေကို ဆောက်လုပ်ရင်းနှီးကြမဲ့ ပုဂ္ဂလိကရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုကို အားပေးပါတယ်။
ဒီလို တွဲဖက်ဖြည့်ဆည်းပေးတဲ့ အကျိုးသက်ရောက်မှုကနေတစ်ဆင့် ပြည်သူပိုင် အရင်းအနှီး အသုံးစရိတ် ဟာ ပုဂ္ဂလိက ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှု ဝယ်လိုအားမျဉ်းကွေးကို ID1 မှ ID2 သို့ ညာဘက်ကို ရွေ့လျား သွားစေပါ တယ်။ အစိုးရရဲ့ ချေးဌားမှုဟာ အတိုးနှုန်းကို 6% မှ 10% သို့ တိုးသွားစေသော်လဲ စုစုပေါင်း ပုဂ္ဂလိက ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုက မကျဆင်းတော့ဘူး။ ပုံမှာ ပြထားတဲ့အတိုင်း အမှတ် a ကနေ အမှတ် c ကိုရွေ့သွားပြီး $25 ဘီလီယံ အတိုင်းဆက်ရှိမယ်။ ဒါက အစိုးရရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုက crowding-out effect ကို အပြည့်အဝ ခြေဖျက်လိုက်လို့ မူလ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုအတိုင်း ပြန်ဖြစ်တာ။ အဲလို မဟုတ်ဘဲ အဲဒီ ပမာဏထက် လျော့နေ တယ်ဆိုရင်တော့ အစိုးရ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုက crowding-out ကို အပြည့်အဝ အစားမထိုးနိုင်လို့ပေါ့။ အဓိကအချက်ကတော့ အတိုးနှုန်း မြင့်သွားလို့ လျော့ကျသွားတဲ့ ပုဂ္ဂလိက ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုကို တိုးတက်လာတဲ့ အစိုးရ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုက တိုက်ထုတ်နိုင်တယ် ဆိုတာပါဘဲ။
ဖတ်ရှုအကျိုးများပါစေ။
McConnell. Brue Flynn တို့ ရေးသားသော eighteenth edition. "Economics: Principles, Problems, and Policies" မှ ကိုးကား ဘာသာပြန်ပါသည်။
ဖြူ ဖြူ ဒုတိယအချက်ကတော့ အစိုးရနဲ့ ပုဂ္ဂလိက တစ်ဦးနဲ့တစ်ဦး တွဲဖက် ဖြည့်ဆည်းပေးမှုပါဘဲ။ တစ်ဦးလိုတာ တစ်ဦးက ဖြည့်တာပေါ့။ ဒါဟာ crowding-out effect ကို လျော့ပါးစေပါတယ်။ တစ်ချို့သော အစိုးရနဲ့ ပုဂ္ဂလိက ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုတွေဟာ တွဲဖက်လျှက်ရှိနေပါတယ်။ ဒါကြောင့် အစိုးရက ငွေချေးဌားပြီး ဖြည့်ဆည်း လုပ်ကိုင်တဲ့ ပြည်သူပိုင် ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုတွေဟာ မြင့်မားတဲ့ မျှော်မှန်း ပြန်ရချက်ကြောင့် တစ်ချို့သော ပုဂ္ဂလိက ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုတွေကို တိုးတက်မြန်ဆန်စေပါတယ်။ ဥပမာအားဖြင့် ဖက်ဒရယ် အစိုးရက မြို့သစ်တစ်ခုကို တည်ဆောက်တာဟာ အနီးအနားမှာ ရုံးအဆောက်အဦတွေ၊ ဆိုင်တွေ၊ စားသောက်ဆိုင်တွေကို ဆောက်လုပ်ရင်းနှီးကြမဲ့ ပုဂ္ဂလိကရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုကို အားပေးပါတယ်။
ဒီလို တွဲဖက်ဖြည့်ဆည်းပေးတဲ့ အကျိုးသက်ရောက်မှုကနေတစ်ဆင့် ပြည်သူပိုင် အရင်းအနှီး အသုံးစရိတ် ဟာ ပုဂ္ဂလိက ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှု ဝယ်လိုအားမျဉ်းကွေးကို ID1 မှ ID2 သို့ ညာဘက်ကို ရွေ့လျား သွားစေပါ တယ်။ အစိုးရရဲ့ ချေးဌားမှုဟာ အတိုးနှုန်းကို 6% မှ 10% သို့ တိုးသွားစေသော်လဲ စုစုပေါင်း ပုဂ္ဂလိက ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုက မကျဆင်းတော့ဘူး။ ပုံမှာ ပြထားတဲ့အတိုင်း အမှတ် a ကနေ အမှတ် c ကိုရွေ့သွားပြီး $25 ဘီလီယံ အတိုင်းဆက်ရှိမယ်။ ဒါက အစိုးရရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုက crowding-out effect ကို အပြည့်အဝ ခြေဖျက်လိုက်လို့ မူလ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုအတိုင်း ပြန်ဖြစ်တာ။ အဲလို မဟုတ်ဘဲ အဲဒီ ပမာဏထက် လျော့နေ တယ်ဆိုရင်တော့ အစိုးရ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုက crowding-out ကို အပြည့်အဝ အစားမထိုးနိုင်လို့ပေါ့။ အဓိကအချက်ကတော့ အတိုးနှုန်း မြင့်သွားလို့ လျော့ကျသွားတဲ့ ပုဂ္ဂလိက ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုကို တိုးတက်လာတဲ့ အစိုးရ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံမှုက တိုက်ထုတ်နိုင်တယ် ဆိုတာပါဘဲ။
ဖတ်ရှုအကျိုးများပါစေ။
McConnell. Brue Flynn တို့ ရေးသားသော eighteenth edition. "Economics: Principles, Problems, and Policies" မှ ကိုးကား ဘာသာပြန်ပါသည်။
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