ဘ႑ာေရး မူဝါဒ ျဖစ္တဲ႔ အစိုးရ အသုံးစရိတ္နဲ႔ အခြန္အခ ေျပာင္းလဲမႈဟာ national saving ကို ဘယ္လို ေျပာင္းလဲေစသလဲကို အေရွ႕က ေဆာင္းပါးမွာ ရွင္းခဲ႔ၿပီးပါၿပီ..။ အခုတစ္ခါ ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ ဝယ္လိုအား ကို စစ္ေဆးဖုိ႔လဲ model ကို အသုံးျပဳႏိုင္ပါတယ္။ ရင္းႏွီးျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ အေျပာင္းအလဲေတြရဲ႕ အေၾကာင္းနဲ႔ အက်ိဳးကို စစ္ေဆးၾကည္႔ပါမယ္။
ရင္းႏွီးျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ ဝယ္လုိအားကို တိုးလာေစတဲ႔ အေၾကာင္းရင္း တစ္ရပ္ကေတာ႔ နည္းပညာ တီထြင္ ဖန္တီးမႈ ဘဲ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ ဥပမာအားျဖင္႔ တစ္စုံတစ္ေယာက္က ရထားလမ္း၊ ကြန္ျပဴတာ စတဲ႔ နည္းပညာအသစ္ တစ္ခု တီထြင္တယ္ ဆိုပါစို႔ ။ လုပ္ငန္းတစ္ခု သို႔မဟုတ္ အိမ္ေထာင္စု တစ္ခုက တီထြင္မႈရဲ႕အက်ိဳးေက်းဇူး ကို ရရွိ ခံစားျခင္း မျပဳႏိုင္ခင္မွာ ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ ကုန္စည္ကို ဝယ္ယူရပါတယ္။ ရထားလမ္းကို တီထြင္ လုိက္ေပမဲ႔ ရထားေတြကို မထုတ္လုပ္ ႏိုင္ခင္အထိ ဘာမွ တန္ဘိုး မရွိပါဘူး။ ကြန္ျပဴတာေတြကို မထုတ္လုပ္ ႏိုင္ခင္အထိ ကြန္ျပဴတာဆုိတဲ႔ အႀကံအစည္တစ္ခုဟာလဲ အလကားပါဘဲ။ ဒါေၾကာင္႔ နည္းပညာ တီထြင္မႈတစ္ခု အေကာင္အထည္ေပၚႏိုင္ေရး အတြက္ ရင္းႏွီးျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ ကုန္စည္ေတြကို ဝယ္ယူ လုပ္ကိုင္ရေသာေၾကာင္႔ ရင္းႏွီးျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ ကုန္စည္ရဲ႕ဝယ္လုိအားဟာ တက္လာပါတယ္။
အစိုးရက အခြန္ ဥပေဒကတစ္ဆင္႔ ရင္းႏွီးျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈကို အားေပးျခင္း၊ အားမေပးျခင္း မ်ားေၾကာင္႔လဲ ရင္းႏွီးျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ ဝယ္လုိအားသည္ ေျပာင္းလဲ ႏိုင္ပါတယ္။ ဥပမာ အားျဖင္႔ အစိုးရက လူေတြရဲ႕ ဝင္ေငြခြန္ကို တိုးျမႇင္႔ ေကာက္ခံၿပီး ရလာတဲ႔ ေငြေတြကို ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမဲ႔သူေတြ အတြက္ အခြန္အခ ေလွ်ာ႔ခ်ေပးတာ အတြက္ သုံးတယ္ ဆုိပါစုိ႔ ။ အဲဒီလို အခြန္ ဥပေဒကို ျပင္ဆင္လုိက္တာဟာ နည္းပညာ အသစ္တီထြင္မႈ ကဲ႔သို႔ေသာ ရင္းႏွီးျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ စီမံကိန္းေတြကို အျမတ္အစြန္း ရေစၿပီး ရင္းႏွီးျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ ကုန္စည္ေတြရဲ႕ ဝယ္လုိအားကလဲ တက္လာပါတယ္။
ေအာက္ပါ graph ကေတာ႔ ရင္းႏွီးျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ ဝယ္လိုအား တက္လာျခင္းရဲ႔ အက်ိဳးသက္ေရာက္မႈကို ျပပါ တယ္။
ဘယ္အတိုးႏႈန္းမွာမဆို ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ ကုန္စည္အတြက္ ဝယ္လုိအား၊ loanable funds အတြက္ ဝယ္လို အား ေတြက ျမင္႔မားေနပါတယ္။ ဒီဝယ္လိုအား ျမင္႔မားမႈဟာ ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ မ်ဥ္းေကြးကို ညာဘက္ ကို ေရြ႕သြားေစပါတယ္။ စီးပြားေရး အေဆာက္အအုံ ဟာ အားမွ်ေျခ အေဟာင္း A ကေန အားမွ်ေျခ အသစ္ B ကို ေရြ႕သြားပါတယ္။ စုေဆာင္းမႈ ပမာဏဟာ ပုံေသ ျဖစ္ေနတဲ႔ အတြက္ တနည္းအားျဖင္႔ ေျပာရရင္ loanable funds ေရာင္းလိုအားဟာ ပုံေသ ျဖစ္တဲ႔အတြက္ ရင္းႏွီးျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ ဝယ္လုိအား တက္လာတာဟာ ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ ပမာဏ မေျပာင္းလဲဘဲနဲ႔ အတိုးႏႈန္းကို ဘဲ ျမင္႔တက္သြား ေစပါတယ္။
သုိ႔ေသာ္လည္း ကြ်န္မတုိ႔က စားသုံးမႈ ဖန္ရွင္ကို ျပင္လုိက္မယ္ဆိုရင္၊ စားသုံးမႈကို အတိုးႏႈန္းေပၚ မွီခိုတယ္ လုိ႔ ယူဆလုိက္ရင္ ကြဲလြဲတဲ႔ ေကာက္ခ်က္ခ်မႈကို ျပဳလုပ္ႏိုင္ပါတယ္။ (စားသုံးမႈက အသားတင္ဝင္ေငြေပၚ မွီခိုတယ္ လို႔ ယူဆခဲ႔ပါတယ္။) တနည္းအားျဖင္႔ စားသုံးမႈနဲ႔ စုေဆာင္းမႈက ဆန္႔က်င္ဘက္ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ အတိုးႏႈန္းက စုေဆာင္းမႈက ျပန္ရေငြ၊ တစ္ခါ ေငြေခ်းဌားမႈ စရိတ္ ျဖစ္တဲ႔ အတြက္ေၾကာင္႔ အတိုးႏႈန္း ျမင္႔ မားတာဟာ စားသုံးမႈကို က်ဆင္းေစၿပီး စုေဆာင္းမႈကို တိုးပြားေစပါတယ္။ အဲလိုဆိုရင္ စုေဆာင္းမႈ မ်ဥ္းေကြးဟာ ေဒါင္လုိက္ မ်ဥ္းမတ္ မျဖစ္ေတာ႔ဘဲ upward sloping မ်ဥ္းေကြး ျဖစ္သြား မွာ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။
စုေဆာင္းမႈနဲ႔ အတိုးႏႈန္းက တုိက္ရိုက္ ဆက္စပ္ေနတဲ႔အခါ ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ ဝယ္လိုအား မ်ဥ္းေကြး ညာဘက္ ကို တက္သြားတာဟာ အတိုးႏႈန္းကိုလဲ ျမင္႔ေစသလို ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ ပမာဏကုိလဲ တိုးလာေစပါတယ္။ ပထမ ပုံမွာတုံးက စုေဆာင္းမႈက ကိန္းေသ မ်ဥ္းမတ္၊ ေရာင္းလိုအားက ပုံေသျဖစ္ၿပီး ဝယ္လိုအား တက္လာေတာ႔ အတိုးႏႈန္းကဘဲ ျမင္႔တက္သြားၿပီး ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ ပမာဏကေတာ႔ ဒီအတိုင္းဘဲ ျဖစ္ခဲ႔တယ္။ အခုဟာက စုေဆာင္းမႈက အတိုးႏႈန္းေပၚ မူတည္တဲ႔ အတြက္ ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ ဝယ္လိုအား တက္လို႔ အတိုးႏႈန္း တက္တာသည္ စုေဆာင္းမႈကို ပါ တက္လာေစတယ္။ အတိုးႏႈန္းတက္ေတာ႔ လူေတြက ပိုမို စုေဆာင္းၾကတယ္။ စားသုံးမႈကို ေလွ်ာ႔ ၾကတယ္။ စုေဆာင္းေငြေတြ တက္လာေတာ႔ ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံတဲ႔ သူေတြ ေငြေခ်းဖို႔ loanable funds ေတြမ်ားလာ တာေပါ႔။ ဒီေတာ႔ ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံတဲ႔ ပမာဏလဲ တက္လာ တာေပါ႔။
စုေဆာင္းမႈက upward sloping မ်ဥ္းေကြး ျဖစ္သြားေတာ႔ ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ ဝယ္လိုအား တက္တာဟာ အားမွ်ေျခ အတိုးႏႈန္းနဲ႔ အားမွ်ေျခ ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ ပမာဏ ကို ျမင္႔တက္ေစတယ္။ အိမ္ေထာင္စုေတြက စားသုံးမႈကို ေလွ်ာ႔ၿပီး ပိုစုၾကေတာ႔ ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ အတြက္ အရင္းအျမစ္ေတြ မ်ားလာတာေပါ႔။
ဒီအထိက စီးပြားေရး အေဆာက္အအုံသည္ အျခား တုိင္းျပည္မ်ားနဲ႔ ကုန္သြယ္မႈ မရွိဘူးလုိ႔ ယူဆခဲ႔တယ္။ လုပ္သားအင္အားကို အျပည္႔အဝ အသုံးခ် fully employed ထားတယ္။ ေနာက္ ကုန္ထုတ္စြမ္းအားစု မ်ားျဖစ္တဲ႔ capital stock နဲ႔ labor ကို အကန္႔အသတ္ ရွိတယ္လုိ႔ ယူဆခဲ႔တယ္။
စီးပြားေရး အေဆာက္အအုံရဲ႕ ကုန္ထြက္ေတြကို စားသုံးမႈ၊ ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈနဲ႔ အစိုးရ အသုံးစရိတ္ အတြက္ အသုံးျပဳတယ္။ စားသုံးမႈက အသားတင္ဝင္ေငြ နဲ႔ တိုက္ရိုက္ အခ်ိဳးက်တယ္။ ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈနဲ႔ အမွန္ အတိုးႏႈန္းက ေျပာင္းျပန္ ဆက္စပ္တယ္။ အစိုးရ အသုံးစရိတ္ နဲ႔ အခြန္အခ မ်ားသည္ ဘ႑ာေရး မူဝါဒရဲ႕ ျပင္ပ ကိန္းရွင္မ်ား ျဖစ္တယ္။
တုိင္းျပည္ကုန္ထြက္ရဲ႕ ဝယ္လုိအားနဲ႔ ေရာင္းလုိအားကို အားမွ်ေျခ ျဖစ္ေစဖုိ႔ အတိုးႏႈန္းက ညႇိႏိႈင္းေပးတယ္။ တနည္းအားျဖင္႔ loanable funds ရဲ႕ ေရာင္းလိုအား saving နဲ႔ ဝယ္လိုအား investment ကို အားမွ်ေျခ ေရာက္ေစရန္ အတိုးႏႈန္းက ညႇိႏိႈင္းေပးတယ္။ အစုိးရ အသုံးစရိတ္ ျမင္႔လုိ႔ national saving က်တာ သို႔မဟုတ္ အခြန္အခ ေလွ်ာ႔ခ်တာဟာ ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ အားမွ်ေျခ ပမာဏကို က်ေစၿပီး အတိုးႏႈန္း ကို ျမင္႔မားေစတယ္။
နည္းပညာ တီထြင္မႈေၾကာင္႔ ၊ ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ အတြက္ အခြန္အခ ေလွ်ာ႔ေပါ႔ေပးမႈ ဆြဲေဆာင္ခ်က္ေၾကာင္႔ ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ ဝယ္လိုအား တက္လာတာဟာ အတုိးႏႈန္းကို တက္လာေစတယ္။ ရင္းႏွီးမႈ ပမာဏကေတာ႔ မေျပာင္းလဲဘူး။ အတုိးႏႈန္းက စုေဆာင္းမႈကို တြန္းအားေပးတယ္ ဆိုရင္ေတာ႔ ရင္းႏွီး ျမႇဳပ္ႏွံမႈ ဝယ္လိုအား တက္လာတာဟာ ရင္းႏွီးမႈ ပမာဏကိုပါ တုိးေစတယ္။
ဖတ္ရွဳ အက်ိဳးမ်ားပါေစ။
N. Gregory Mankiw ေရးသားေသာ "Macroeconomics" 6th edition မွ ဆီေလ်ာ္ေအာင္ ထုတ္ႏုတ္ ဘာသာ ျပန္ဆုိပါသည္။
ျဖဴ ျဖဴ
It's a good idea.
ReplyDeleteခြိ.. ခြိ.. Thanks ....
Deleteအမေရ ေလ့လာသြားပါတယ္ေနာ္
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ReplyDeleteGood morning how are you?
ReplyDeleteMy name is Emilio, I am a Spanish boy and I live in a town near to Madrid. I am a very interested person in knowing things so different as the culture, the way of life of the inhabitants of our planet, the fauna, the flora, and the landscapes of all the countries of the world etc. in summary, I am a person that enjoys traveling, learning and respecting people's diversity from all over the world.
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